2024 06 40-47
计及极端天气因素的电力系统三维弹性评估体系构建
基金项目(Foundation):
国家自然科学基金项目“具有宽参数稳定域的功率因数校正变换器的CCM/DCM通用控制方法研究”（62001169）
邮箱(Email):
DOI:
10.19929/j.cnki.nmgdljs.2024.0078
中文作者单位:
广州铁路职业技术学院，广州 511300;广州航海学院，广州 510700;中国能源建设集团广东省电力设计研究院有限公司，广州 510663
摘要(Abstract):
为应对极端天气对电力系统的影响，并准确评估相应措施的实际效果，构建了一个包含极端天气因素的三维弹性评估体系，以满足当前电力系统在提升稳定性和恢复能力方面的需求。首先总结了极端天气对电力系统安全稳定运行的影响，介绍了PCEA抗灾体系。其次为检验PCEA体系实际应用的效果，在评估阶段从经济、环境、社会三个维度建立评估收益指标体系，对经济指标进行定量计算，准确评价电力系统适应气候变化的弹性程度，并给出抗灾体系的评估流程。最后以沿海某钢铁厂应用为例，验证了构建的三维度评估体系可准确、全面地计及各因素对电网遭受极端天气时的弹性影响。
关键词(KeyWords):
极端天气;电力系统;三维弹性评估;抗灾体系;评估收益指标
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参考文献
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[2] 郁琛，常康，刘韶峰，等.关于电力系统极端外部灾害主动防御技术的评述[J].四川电力技术，2023，46（2）：8-14，38. YU Chen, CHANG Kang, LIU Shaofeng, et al. A Review on Active Defense Technology of Extreme External Disasters in Power System[J]. Sichuan Electric Power Technology, 2023, 46(2): 8-14, 38.
[3] 黄伟，黄廷城，王立勇，等.基于态势感知的电网台风预警防御框架研究综述[J].电力系统保护与控制，2018，46（11）：162-169. HUANG Wei, HUANG Tingcheng, WANG Liyong, et al. Research on typhoon early warning and defense framework of power gridbased on situation awareness[J]. Power System Protection and Control, 2018, 46(11): 162-169.
[4] Ge L, Xian Y, Yan J, et al. A Hybrid Model for Short-term PV Output Forecasting Based on PCA-GWO-GRNN[J]. Journal of Modern Power Systems and Clean Energy, 2020, 8(6): 1268-1275.
[5] 王海超，张超，王孟枢，等.输电线路巡检智能立体安防系统研究[J].电工技术，2020（13）：57-59. WANG Haichao, ZHANG Chao, WANG Mengshu, et al. Study on Intelligent Three-dimensional Security System for Transmission Line Inspection[J]. Electric Engineering, 2020(13): 57-59.
[6] 秦浩然，夏银宽.基于大数据技术的电网自然灾害应急救援能力评价体系研究[J].电力大数据，2020，23（9）：18-25. QIN Haoran, XIA Yinkuan. Research on the evaluation system of emergency rescue ability of power grid natural disaster based on big data technology[J]. Power Systems and Big Data, 2020, 23(9): 18-25.
[7] 周小华，范美鹏，袁雪松，等.融合气象信息的配网故障特征挖掘和故障预报研究[J].电力大数据，2020，23（12）：72-79. ZHOU Xiaohua, FAN Meipeng, YUAN Xuesong, et al. Research on fault feature mining and fault prediction in distribution network based on meteorological information[J]. Power Systems and Big Data, 2020, 23(12): 72-79.
[8] 赵鹏，邹立尧，荆国栋.气候变化专项绩效评估指标设计与应用[J].科技管理研究，2019，39（4）：42-47. ZHAO Peng, ZOU Liyao, JING Guodong. Design and Application of Performance Evaluation Index for Climate Change Special Project[J]. Science and Technology Management Research, 2019, 39(4): 42-47.
[9] 黄文鑫，吴军，郭子辉，等.台风灾害下电网韧性评估及差异化规划[J].电力系统自动化，2023，47（5）：84-91. HUANG Wenxin, WU Jun, GUO Zihui, et al. Power Grid Resilience Assessment and Differentiated Planning Against Typhoon Disasters[J]. Automation of Electric Power Systems, 2023, 47(5): 84-91.
[10] 郁海彬，唐亮，陈浩年，等.极端自然灾害下新型电力系统态势感知与知识图谱构建策略[J].电力大数据，2024，27（1）：64-77. YU Haibin, TANG Liang, CHEN Haonian, et al. Strategy for Situational Awareness and Knowledge Graph Construction of New Power Systems Under Extreme Natural Disasters[J]. Power Systems and Big Data, 2024, 27(1): 64-77.
[11] 雷霞，郑国鑫，胡益.地震灾害下配电网的脆弱性分析及弹性提升措施[J].电网技术，2021，45（9）：3674-3680. LEI Xia, ZHENG Guoxin, HU Yi. Vulnerability Analysis and Resilience Improvement of Distribution Network Under Earthquake Disasters[J]. Power System Technology, 2021, 45(9): 3674-3680.
[12] 罗金盛，张振.地震灾害中的高压电气设备响应与易损性分析[J].灾害学，2019，34（1）：47-50. LUO Jinsheng, ZHANG Zhen. Response and Vulnerability Analysis of High Voltage Electrical Equipment in Earthquake Disasters[J]. Journal of Catasttrophology, 2019, 34(1): 47-50.
[13] 田甜，张骏，叶樊，等.洪涝灾害下配电网三维韧性指标评估体系[J].电工电能新技术，2022，41（7）：80-88. TIAN Tian, ZHANG Jun, YE Fan. Three-dimensional resilience index evaluation system for distribution network under flood disaster[J]. Advanced Technology of Electrical Engineering and Energy, 2022, 41(7): 80-88.
[14] 郁海彬，唐亮，陈浩年，等.极端自然灾害下新型电力系统态势感知与知识图谱构建策略[J].电力大数据，2024，27（1）：64-77. YU Haibin, TANG Liang, CHEN Haonian, et al. Strategy for Situational Awareness and Knowledge Graph Construction of New Power Systems Under Extreme Natural Disasters[J]. Power Systems and Big Data, 2024,27(1): 64-77
[15] 李政麒，蔡晔，曹一家，等.美国得州“2·15”停电事故分析及对中国新型电力系统供电充裕度的启示[J].电力科学与技术学报， 2022，37（5）：17-24. LI Zhengqi, CAI Ye, CAO Yijia. Analysis of “2· 15” blackout in Texas and its enlightenment to China's new power system supply adequacy[J]. Journal of Electric Power Science and Technology, 2022, 37(5): 17-24.
[16] 吴界辰，汪莹，易海琼，等.中国台湾“3·3”大规模停电事故分析及其对未来电网发展的启示[J].电力建设，2022，43（7）：73-79. WU Jiechen, WANG Ying, YI Haiqiong, et al. Analysis of the Power Outage in Taiwan, China on March 3，2022 and its Implications for Future Power Grid Development[J]. Electric Power Construction, 2022, 43(7): 73-79.
[17] 雷傲宇，周剑，梅勇，等“. 3·3”中国台湾电网大停电事故分析及启示[J].南方电网技术，2022，16（9）：90-97. LEI Aoyu, ZHOU Jian, MEI Yong, et al. Analysis and Lessons of the Blackout in Chinese Taiwan Power Grid on March 3, 2022[J]. Southern Power System Technology, 2022, 16(9): 90-97.
[18] 杨雯哲.电网大面积停电应急管理问题与对策研究[D].广州：华南理工大学，2018.
[19] 朱超，王蕾，姚宇，等.新型电力系统背景下城市供电风险的传导推演与阻断方法[J].浙江电力，2022，41（7）：49-56. ZHU Chao, WANG Lei, YAO Yu, et al. Deduction of urban power supply risk transmission and blocking method in the context of the new power system[J]. Zhejiang Electric Power, 2022, 41(7): 49-56.
[20] 潘英.能源战略下的能源电力发展方向和碳排放问题[J].南方能源建设，2019，6（3）：32-39. PAN Ying. Energy Power Development Direction and Low Carbon Emission Under Energy Strategy[J]. Southern Energy Construction, 2019, 6(3): 32-39.
[21] 周岩，燕京，胡蓉，等.基于特高压输电系统温室气体减排模型的“西电东送”项目碳减排量化[J].广东电力，2021，34（10）：18-22. ZHOU Yan, YAN Jing, HU Rong, et al. Quantification of Carbon Emission Reduction of the West-to-East Power Transmission Based on the Greenhouse Gas Emission Reduction Model of UHV DC Transmission System[J]. Guangdong Electric Power, 2021, 34(10): 18-22.
[22] 张浩楠.面向碳中和的电力低碳转型规划与决策研究[D].北京： 华北电力大学，2022.
[23] 李立浧，张勇军，徐敏.我国能源系统形态演变及分布式能源发展[J].分布式能源，2017，2（1）：1-9. LI Licheng, ZHANG Yongjun, XU Min. Morphological Evolution of Energy System and Development of Distributed Energy in China[J]. Distributed Energy, 2017, 2(1): 1-9.
[24] 别朝红，王则凯，肖遥，等.双碳目标下新型电力系统发展展望[J].新型电力系统，2023，1（2）：116-131. BIE Hongchao, WANG Zekai, XIAO Yao, et al. Outlook for the Development of New Power Systems under the Dual Carbon Target[J]. New Type Power Systems, 2023, 1(2): 116- 131.
[25] 周孝信，赵强，张玉琼“. 双碳”目标下我国能源电力系统发展前景[J].科学通报，2024，69（8）：983-989. ZHOU Xiaoxin, ZHAO Qiang, ZHANG Yuqiong. Prospect of China's energy and power system under dual carbon goals[J]. Chinese Science Bulletin, 2024, 69(8): 983-989.
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基本信息:
DOI：10.19929/j.cnki.nmgdljs.2024.0078
中图分类号:
引用信息:
[1]邓婧1,王磊2,卢赓3等.计及极端天气因素的电力系统三维弹性评估体系构建[J],2024,42(06):40-47.DOI:10.19929/j.cnki.nmgdljs.2024.0078.
基金信息:
国家自然科学基金项目“具有宽参数稳定域的功率因数校正变换器的CCM/DCM通用控制方法研究”（62001169）
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