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为明晰清洁能源发展规划与电力市场化改革双重作用下电力系统的发展形态与不同阶段的转型特征，基于多智能体仿真构建了内嵌多主体市场行为、时序生产模拟、系统结构演化及低碳政策规划的中长期电力低碳转型模型，通过多情景设定与数值仿真探索了区域电力系统的低碳发展路径。算例分析表明： 2030年前，火力发电为供电主体，新能源新增装机受政策驱动效果显著。该阶段，电力系统需统筹源荷资源平衡发展，避免电源侧产能过剩造成机组利用小时数降低。2030年后，随火电退役及风电、光伏的容量扩增与成本降低，新能源参与市场可促进平均电价降低，减少火电机组利用小时数，推动区域碳排放减少。该阶段，储能等灵活性资源对平衡风光出力波动作用显著，需在日间时段充电，消纳过剩的光伏出力；在其余时段放电，以弥补风电出力不足。
Abstract：In order to clarify the development pattern of the power system and the transformation characteristics at different stages under the dual role of clean energy development planning and the market-oriented reform of the power industry, this paper constructs a medium - and - long - term low - carbon transformation model of the power system based on multi - agent simulation, which is embedded with multi - agent market behavior, time - series production simulation, system structure evolution, and low - carbon policy planning. Through multi - scenario setting and numerical simulation, the low - carbon development path of the regional power system is explored. Case analysis shows that before 2030, thermal power generation will be the main power source, and the addition of new energy installed capacity will be significantly driven by policies. At this stage, the power system needs to coordinate the balanced development of source and load resources to avoid overcapacity on the power side, which leads to a decrease in the number of hours of unit utilization. After 2030, with the retirement of thermal power and the expansion of wind and photovoltaic capacity and cost reduction, the participation of new energy in the market can promote the reduction of average electricity prices, reduce the number of hours of thermal power units, and promote the reduction of regional carbon emissions. At this stage, flexible resources such as energy storage plays a significant role in balancing the output fluctuations of wind and photovoltaic power, which need to be charged during the daytime to consume excess photovoltaic output and discharged during other periods to make up for the insufficient output of wind power.
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基本信息:
DOI：10.19929/j.cnki.nmgdljs.2024.0062
中图分类号:
引用信息:
[1]赵启新1,苏雅亨1,李雨佳1等.基于多智能体仿真的区域低碳电力系统发展形态及实现路径研究[J],2024,42(05):13-22.DOI:10.19929/j.cnki.nmgdljs.2024.0062.
基金信息:
内蒙古电力（集团）有限责任公司科技项目“基于多视角以新能源为主体的新型电力系统实现路径研究”（WZGLC0708-0039）