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针对我国北方地区电网在迎峰度冬期间面临的寒潮天气影响、供暖和用电负荷需求增加的问题，提出提高寒潮天气下新能源功率预测的准确率，以有效解决“保供电”和“保消纳”之间的矛盾。根据寒潮天气影响风电运行的过程，将寒潮天气特征分为风机覆冰、大风切机、低温脱网和晴冷无风四种类型。分析了各种寒潮类型对风电运行的影响机理，并结合内蒙古东部地区典型案例研究了寒潮影响风电功率预测的偏差规律。基于上述分析，在管理和技术方面提出了加强寒潮天气的预测预警工作、开展新能源功率预测系统升级改造等提升风电功率预测性能的建议，以提高寒潮天气下风电预测的准确率。
Abstract：In view of the problems of cold wave weather influence, heating and power load demand increase faced by the power grids in winter of Northern China, the author proposes to improve the accuracy of new energy power forecast under cold wave weather, so as to effectively solve the contradiction between power supply protection and consumption protection. According to the process of cold wave weather affecting wind power operation, the characteristics of cold wave weather are divided into four types:fan icing, wind cutter, low temperature off-grid and sunny cold without wind. The influence mechanism of various cold wave types on wind power operation is analyzed in detail, and the deviation rule of cold wave influence on wind power forecast is studied in combination with a typical case in the east of Inner Mongolia. Based on the above analysis, put forward the suggestions in terms of management and technology, such as strengthening the forecasting and early warning of cold wave weather, upgrading the new energy power forecasting system to improve the wind power forecasting performance, so as to improve the accuracy of wind power forecasting in cold wave weather.
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基本信息:
DOI：10.19929/j.cnki.nmgdljs.2023.0048
中图分类号:TM614
引用信息:
[1]郑婷婷1,单小雨1,马继涛2等.寒潮天气对风电运行和功率预测的影响分析[J].内蒙古电力技术,2023,41(04):8-12.DOI:10.19929/j.cnki.nmgdljs.2023.0048.
基金信息:
内蒙古自治区科技重大专项“大功率风氢储系统高效集成及灵活控制关键技术研究”（2021ZD0040）；国家电网公司总部科技项目“基于数字物理混合仿真的新能源机组弱电网测试技术”（4000-202355091A-1-1-ZN）